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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 34.61% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.25%) and 0-2 (5.96%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 2-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
Result | ||
Swansea City | Draw | Southampton |
34.61% ( 0.02) | 23.68% ( -0.01) | 41.71% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 62.24% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.31% ( 0.03) | 39.69% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.95% ( 0.03) | 62.04% ( -0.04) |
Swansea City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.18% ( 0.02) | 22.82% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.46% ( 0.04) | 56.53% ( -0.04) |
Southampton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.64% ( 0) | 19.36% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.85% ( 0.01) | 51.14% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Swansea City | Draw | Southampton |
2-1 @ 7.92% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.53% ( -0) 2-0 @ 4.82% 3-1 @ 3.9% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.44% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.18% ( 0) Other @ 3.24% Total : 34.61% | 1-1 @ 10.71% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.5% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.42% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.75% ( 0) Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.68% | 1-2 @ 8.8% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.25% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.82% 2-3 @ 3.56% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.26% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.98% 2-4 @ 1.46% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.34% ( -0) Other @ 3.29% Total : 41.71% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 32 |
2 | Sunderland | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
3 | Burnley | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 30 |
4 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 27 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 26 |
7 | Watford | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 26 |
8 | Millwall | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
11 | Derby CountyDerby | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
12 | Stoke CityStoke | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 20 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 19 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 17 |
18 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 17 |
19 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
22 | Hull City | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 11 |
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