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Major League Soccer
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer
Jun 22, 2023 at 1.30am UK
BBVA Compass Stadium
San Jose Earthquakes

Houston
4 - 1
Earthquakes

Bassi (3'), Baird (5'), Ulfarsson (78', 90')
Sviatchenko (37'), Herrera (86')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Akapo (41')
Ebobisse (38'), Bouda (50'), Judson (67'), Yueill (81'), Skahan (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Major League Soccer clash between Houston Dynamo and San Jose Earthquakes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Houston Dynamo

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last Game: Los Angeles 0-1 Houston
Thursday, June 15 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions
Last Game: Earthquakes 0-0 Portland
Sunday, June 18 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Houston Dynamo 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes

 Both Houston and San Jose have shown their defensive resilience in recent weeks, conceding just four goals across the last seven fixtures combined, and a tight affair between two evenly-matched teams could be in store on Thursday. However, Houston seem to have the edge in the final third at present, and we believe that the hosts will come out on top with a narrow victory.

How to watch

You can watch Houston Dynamo vs. San Jose Earthquakes and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 54.24%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 22.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.

Result
Houston DynamoDrawSan Jose Earthquakes
54.24% (0.706 0.71) 23.09% (-0.261 -0.26) 22.67% (-0.442 -0.44)
Both teams to score 55.29% (0.295 0.3)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.14% (0.661 0.66)44.85% (-0.658 -0.66)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.79% (0.633 0.63)67.21% (-0.63 -0.63)
Houston Dynamo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.55% (0.492 0.49)16.45% (-0.489 -0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.86% (0.877 0.88)46.14% (-0.873 -0.87)
San Jose Earthquakes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.18% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)33.82% (0.038000000000004 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.51% (-0.038 -0.04)70.48% (0.040000000000006 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Houston Dynamo 54.24%
    San Jose Earthquakes 22.67%
    Draw 23.08%
Houston DynamoDrawSan Jose Earthquakes
1-0 @ 10.04% (-0.12 -0.12)
2-1 @ 9.82% (0.034000000000001 0.03)
2-0 @ 9.06% (0.041 0.04)
3-1 @ 5.91% (0.116 0.12)
3-0 @ 5.45% (0.113 0.11)
3-2 @ 3.2% (0.06 0.06)
4-1 @ 2.67% (0.095 0.09)
4-0 @ 2.46% (0.09 0.09)
4-2 @ 1.45% (0.05 0.05)
5-1 @ 0.96% (0.049 0.05)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 54.24%
1-1 @ 10.88% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 5.56% (-0.159 -0.16)
2-2 @ 5.33% (0.013 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.16% (0.021 0.02)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 23.08%
0-1 @ 6.03% (-0.179 -0.18)
1-2 @ 5.9% (-0.082 -0.08)
0-2 @ 3.27% (-0.1 -0.1)
1-3 @ 2.13% (-0.031 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.92% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 1.18% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 22.67%

How you voted: Houston vs Earthquakes

Houston Dynamo
90.9%
Draw
0.0%
San Jose Earthquakes
9.1%
11
Head to Head
Apr 2, 2023 3.30am
Earthquakes
2-1
Houston
> Preview
Jul 18, 2022 2.30am
Earthquakes
1-2
Houston
Monteiro (45')
Parker (28'), Vera (43'), Picault (90')
> Preview
Apr 10, 2022 1.30am
Houston
4-3
Earthquakes
> Preview
Jul 25, 2021 3am
Gameweek 18
Earthquakes
1-1
Houston
Valentin (45+5' og.)
Cardoso (70')
Fierro (90+7')
Vera (40')
Picault (53'), Parker (57'), Vera (68'), Urruti (90+8')
> Preview
Apr 17, 2021 1am
Gameweek 1
Houston
2-1
Earthquakes
> Preview
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