We said: St Louis City 3-1 Houston Dynamo
St Louis City have found some convincing form at CityPark in recent weeks and will be confident of continuing their winning run on home soil against a Houston side who come into this game wounded.
Dynamo face another tough away match as they look to respond after their battering in Canada on Wednesday - we cannot envisage Olsen's men earning anything from their trip to Missouri this weekend.
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Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.