Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 66.11%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Dorking Wanderers had a probability of 15.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.57%), while for a Dorking Wanderers win it was 1-2 (4.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
Result | ||
Chesterfield | Draw | Dorking Wanderers |
66.11% ( -0) | 18.66% ( 0) | 15.24% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 56.9% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.79% ( -0) | 36.21% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.67% ( -0) | 58.33% ( 0.01) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.8% ( 0) | 10.2% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.52% ( -0) | 33.48% ( 0.01) |
Dorking Wanderers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.36% ( 0) | 36.64% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.57% ( 0) | 73.43% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Chesterfield | Draw | Dorking Wanderers |
2-1 @ 9.78% 2-0 @ 9.74% 1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.44% 3-0 @ 7.41% 4-1 @ 4.25% 4-0 @ 4.23% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.73% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.13% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.94% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.93% 5-2 @ 0.97% Other @ 4.03% Total : 66.11% | 1-1 @ 8.57% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.91% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.74% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.25% Other @ 0.2% Total : 18.66% | 1-2 @ 4.3% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.75% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.88% 2-3 @ 1.64% 1-3 @ 1.44% Other @ 2.22% Total : 15.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | York City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 48 |
2 | Barnet | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 48 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 46 |
4 | Gateshead | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 44 |
5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 43 |
6 | Rochdale | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 36 |
7 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 42 | 36 | 6 | 35 |
8 | Halifax TownHalifax | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 35 |
9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 34 |
10 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 34 |
11 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 33 |
12 | Eastleigh | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 32 |
13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 32 |
14 | Tamworth | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 29 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 28 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 |
17 | Woking | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 23 |
19 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 23 |
20 | Fylde | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 22 |
21 | Braintree TownBraintree | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 20 |
22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 45 | -18 | 20 |
23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 15 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 23 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 54 | -37 | 9 |
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