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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Italy national football team
Nations League | Semi-Finals
Oct 6, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
 
Spain national football team

Italy
1 - 2
Spain

Pellegrini (83')
Bonucci (30'), Locatelli (82')
Bonucci (42')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Torres (17', 45+2')
Azpilicueta (45'), Sarabia (65'), Pino (71'), Oyarzabal (89')

The Match

Team News

Spain boss Luis Enrique names Barcelona midfielder Gavi in his starting XI for Wednesday's UEFA Nations League semi-final against Italy.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Nations League clash between Italy and Spain, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Spain could line up for Wednesday's UEFA Nations League semi-final with Italy.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 43.56%. A draw had a probability of 31.5% and a win for Spain had a probability of 24.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.48%) and 2-1 (7.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.46%), while for a Spain win it was 0-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.

Result
ItalyDrawSpain
43.56%31.47%24.96%
Both teams to score 35.62%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
28.72%71.28%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
11.96%88.04%
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.94%33.06%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.35%69.65%
Spain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.21%46.79%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.67%82.33%
Score Analysis
    Italy 43.56%
    Spain 24.95%
    Draw 31.46%
ItalyDrawSpain
1-0 @ 17.12%
2-0 @ 9.48%
2-1 @ 7.2%
3-0 @ 3.5%
3-1 @ 2.66%
3-2 @ 1.01%
4-0 @ 0.97%
Other @ 1.64%
Total : 43.56%
0-0 @ 15.46%
1-1 @ 13%
2-2 @ 2.73%
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 31.46%
0-1 @ 11.74%
1-2 @ 4.94%
0-2 @ 4.46%
1-3 @ 1.25%
0-3 @ 1.13%
Other @ 1.43%
Total : 24.95%

How you voted: Italy vs Spain

Italy
79.7%
Spain
20.3%
448
Head to Head
Jul 6, 2021 8pm
Semi-Finals
Italy
1-1
Spain
 Italy win 4-2 on penalties
Chiesa (60')
Toloi (97'), Bonucci (118')
Morata (80')
Busquets (51')
> Match Report
Sep 2, 2017 7.45pm
Group Stage
Spain
3-0
Italy
Isco (13', 40'), Morata (77')
> Match Report
Oct 6, 2016 7.45pm
Group Stage
Italy
1-1
Spain
De Rossi (82' pen.)
Vitolo (55')
> Match Report
Jun 27, 2016 5pm
Round of 16
Italy
2-0
Spain
Chiellini (33'), Pelle (91')
De Sciglio (24'), Pelle (54'), Motta (89')

Nolito (41'), Busquets (89'), Silva (94')
> Match Report
Mar 24, 2016 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Italy
1-1
Spain
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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