Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carrick Rangers win with a probability of 40.72%. A win for Portadown had a probability of 33.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carrick Rangers win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Portadown win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carrick Rangers would win this match.