The last semi-finalist in the 2024 Copa Libertadores will be revealed on Thursday when Penarol and Flamengo square off in leg two of that tie from Estadio Campeon del Siglo in Montevideo.
An early goal last Thursday was all the Uruguayans would need to claim a 1-0 triumph in the opening game between these two at the Maracana.
Match preview
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Penarol took a big step towards booking a place in the semi-finals of this tournament, stunning the home crowd after 13 minutes, winning a second away match at the Libertadores this year.
Should they avoid defeat on Thursday, Manyas would make the Libertadores semi-finals for the first time since 2011, when they lost in the final to Santos (2-1).
Daniel Aguirre's men have won all four of their home matches in this competition, including a 4-0 victory over The Strongest in the round of 16.
Coming into this encounter, Penarol are on a four-match winning run across all competitions, outscoring those four opponents by a combined margin of 12-1.
Only once in the 21st century have we seen Penarol fail to advance from a Libertadores knockout tie when leading after the opening leg, following up a 1-0 victory over Brazilian side Sao Caetano in 2002 with a 2-1 defeat against them in leg two and exiting the quarter-finals that year on penalties.
That year was also the last time they won a home knockout fixture at this tournament versus Brazilian opposition this century, with the only previous occasion being against Palmeiras in the 2000 round of 16, beating them 1-0 in the opening leg but losing that tie on penalties.
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A third appearance in the Libertadores semi-finals in the past four seasons is in jeopardy for Flamengo, who suffered their first home defeat of the tournament last week.
It ended an eight-match unbeaten run for Tite's men at home across all competitions, as Mengao find themselves behind after the opening leg of a Libertadores knockout tie for the first time since the 2019 round of 16.
In that instance, Flamengo were able to bounce back from an opening defeat versus Emelec to advance from that tie on penalties and eventually lift the trophy for a second time.
While they have only lost one quarter-final tie this century (4-3 on aggregate versus Universidad de Chile in 2010), the Brazilians have not won a knockout fixture at this tournament outside the Maracana since defeating Athletico Paranaense in the 2022 final in Ecuador (1-0).
Since advancing into the semi-finals of the Copa do Brasil earlier this month, this side have failed to win their last three matches across all competitions.
They have only claimed one victory at the Copa Libertadores on Uruguayan soil, defeating Club Nacional 1-0 in Montevideo in the 1991 group stage.
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Team News
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From their second-leg defeat in the last 16 against The Strongest to their opening victory over Flamengo, Penarol had just one new face in their starting 11, with Jaime Baez replacing Leo Coelho.
Javier Cabrera had the only goal in the opening leg of this tie last Thursday as Washington Aguerre made six stops to pick up a clean sheet.
Last Thursday, Flamengo were missing Matias Vina and Luiz Araujo with knee injuries, while Michael and Gabriel Barbosa are still out because of thigh issues.
Everton will not return to the Mengao fold this season due to an Achilles tendon injury, nor will Pedro, who is recovering from an ACL problem.
Penarol possible starting lineup:
Aguerre; Milans, Mendez, Rodriguez, Olivera; Garcia, Darias; Cabrera, L. Fernandez, Ramirez; Silvera
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Rossi; Franca, Bruno, Pereira, Lucas; Pulgar, De la Cruz; Gerson, De Arrascaeta, Carlinhos; Henrique
We say: Penarol 0-0 Flamengo (Penarol advances 1-0 on aggregate)
Flamengo had the bulk of the possession in the opening leg (77%) but could not do much with it, and we believe their frustrations will continue against a well-drilled Penarol side who have shown tremendous discipline in recent matches.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
