Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 39.51%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 35.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.