Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Braga had a probability of 19.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 1-0 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a Braga win it was 1-2 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Braga |
59.87% ( 0.64) | 20.45% ( 0.05) | 19.67% ( -0.7) |
Both teams to score 59.87% ( -1.42) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.31% ( -1.31) | 36.69% ( 1.3) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.15% ( -1.43) | 58.85% ( 1.43) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.03% ( -0.23) | 11.96% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.63% ( -0.48) | 37.36% ( 0.48) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.01% ( -1.43) | 31.99% ( 1.43) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.55% ( -1.67) | 68.45% ( 1.66) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Braga |
2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 8.63% ( 0.4) 1-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.44) 3-1 @ 6.96% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.23) 3-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 3.24% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.03) Other @ 4.27% Total : 59.87% | 1-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.45% | 1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.47% Total : 19.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |