Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.37%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 7.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.85%) and 1-0 (10.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.99%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (2.77%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente |
77.37% ( 0.33) | 14.69% ( -0.1) | 7.94% ( -0.24) |
Both teams to score 45.43% ( -0.78) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.04% ( -0.39) | 37.95% ( 0.38) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.78% ( -0.42) | 60.21% ( 0.41) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.95% ( -0.02) | 8.04% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.68% ( -0.05) | 28.31% ( 0.04) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
49.4% ( -0.84) | 50.6% ( 0.83) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.93% ( -0.58) | 85.07% ( 0.57) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente |
2-0 @ 12.92% ( 0.22) 3-0 @ 10.85% ( 0.17) 1-0 @ 10.25% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.08) 5-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.05) 6-0 @ 1.45% ( 0.02) 6-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.28% Total : 77.35% | 1-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 3% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.64% Total : 14.69% | 0-1 @ 2.77% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.84% Total : 7.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 6 | 33 | 33 |
2 | Porto | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 8 | 22 | 30 |
3 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 28 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 24 |
5 | Braga | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 21 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 17 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 15 |
10 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 13 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 13 |
12 | BoavistaBoavista | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 10 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 10 |
14 | AVS | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 10 |
15 | Nacional | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 9 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 8 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 8 |
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