Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 63.82%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 14.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.92%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Braga | Draw | Famalicao |
63.82% ( -0.07) | 21.93% ( 0.03) | 14.25% ( 0.05) |
Both teams to score 43.69% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.52% ( -0.02) | 52.48% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.85% ( -0.01) | 74.15% ( 0.02) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.16% ( -0.03) | 15.84% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.96% ( -0.06) | 45.03% ( 0.06) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.92% ( 0.06) | 48.08% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.71% ( 0.04) | 83.29% ( -0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Braga | Draw | Famalicao |
1-0 @ 14.03% 2-0 @ 12.92% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.47% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.94% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.82% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.68% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.13% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.86% Total : 63.81% | 1-1 @ 10.27% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.62% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.57% Total : 21.92% | 0-1 @ 5.58% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.95% Total : 14.25% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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