Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 42.58%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
Result | ||
Moreirense | Draw | Arouca |
42.58% ( 0.24) | 26.38% ( 0.07) | 31.03% ( -0.31) |
Both teams to score 51.74% ( -0.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.2% ( -0.39) | 52.8% ( 0.39) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.57% ( -0.33) | 74.42% ( 0.34) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.43% ( -0.05) | 24.57% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.94% ( -0.07) | 59.05% ( 0.08) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.59% ( -0.41) | 31.4% ( 0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.22% ( -0.48) | 67.78% ( 0.49) |
Score Analysis |
Moreirense | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 10.83% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 4.12% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.39% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.59% Total : 42.58% | 1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.72% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.38% | 0-1 @ 8.94% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.89% Total : 31.04% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 32 | 30 |
2 | Porto | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 23 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 22 |
4 | Braga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 20 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 18 |
6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 16 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
9 | Casa Pia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 12 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
11 | BoavistaBoavista | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 9 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 9 |
13 | AVS | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
16 | AroucaArouca | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
17 | Estrela Amadora | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 4 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |