Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belenenses win with a probability of 37.06%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 32.05% and a draw had a probability of 30.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belenenses win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.43%) and 1-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (12.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.