Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 24.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.64%) and 1-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.69%), while for a Progreso win it was 1-0 (9.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.