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World Cup
Paraguay national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 16, 2024 at 12am UK
Estadio La Asuncion
Venezuela national football team

Paraguay
2 - 1
Venezuela

Sanabria (59', 74')
Jose Caceres (35'), Alderete (63')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Aramburu (25')
Navarro (12'), Batista (33'), Soteldo (38'), Casseres Jr (45+3'), Cadiz (68'), Aramburu (70'), Bello (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Paraguay and Venezuela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Paraguay

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Ecuador 0-0 Paraguay
Thursday, October 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Venezuela

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Venezuela 1-1 Argentina
Thursday, October 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Paraguay 0-0 Venezuela

 Paraguay's case is most certainly a peculiar one, as even though the hosts have scored the fewest goals in CONMEBOL qualifying - a mere two - they have only allowed three at the other end, by far the best defensive record on the continent. Such statistics give rise to another low-scoring affair on Tuesday, one that should reflect just how close the two sides are in the standings; we think this match has 0-0 written all over it. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paraguay win with a probability of 36.82%. A win for Venezuela had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paraguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.51%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Venezuela win was 0-1 (11.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paraguay would win this match.

Result
ParaguayDrawVenezuela
36.82% (-0.13800000000001 -0.14) 29.27% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09) 33.9% (0.222 0.22)
Both teams to score 44.04% (0.256 0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.2% (0.295 0.3)62.8% (-0.296 -0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.68% (0.214 0.21)82.32% (-0.215 -0.22)
Paraguay Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.34% (0.067999999999998 0.07)32.66% (-0.067999999999998 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.79% (0.072000000000003 0.07)69.2% (-0.073000000000008 -0.07)
Venezuela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.4% (0.313 0.31)34.6% (-0.314 -0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.68% (0.331 0.33)71.32% (-0.33200000000001 -0.33)
Score Analysis
    Paraguay 36.82%
    Venezuela 33.9%
    Draw 29.26%
ParaguayDrawVenezuela
1-0 @ 12.64% (-0.12 -0.12)
2-1 @ 7.51% (0.008 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.08% (-0.053 -0.05)
3-1 @ 2.8% (0.008 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.64% (-0.015 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.49% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 36.82%
1-1 @ 13.42% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 11.29% (-0.13 -0.13)
2-2 @ 3.99% (0.038 0.04)
Other @ 0.57%
Total : 29.26%
0-1 @ 11.99% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
1-2 @ 7.12% (0.056 0.06)
0-2 @ 6.36% (0.038 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.52% (0.041 0.04)
0-3 @ 2.25% (0.032 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.41% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 33.9%

How you voted: Paraguay vs Venezuela

Paraguay
42.2%
Draw
26.5%
Venezuela
31.3%
83
Head to Head
Sep 12, 2023 11pm
Group Stage
Venezuela
1-0
Paraguay
Rondon (90+3' pen.)
Sosa (37'), Andres Martinez (65'), Navarro (75')

Ortiz (42'), Gonzalez (75'), Gomez (83'), Piris (90+2')
> Preview
Sep 9, 2021 11.30pm
Group Stage
Paraguay
2-1
Venezuela
Martinez (7'), Romero (46')
Alonso (21'), Balbuena (49')
Chancellor (90')
Gonzalez (54')
> Preview
Oct 13, 2020 11pm
Group Stage
Venezuela
0-1
Paraguay
Sanabria (86')
Oct 11, 2017 12.30am
Group Stage
Paraguay
0-1
Venezuela
Herrera (84')
rhs 2.0
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