Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 40.89%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.36%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Macarthur |
40.89% ( 0.88) | 24.68% ( 0.23) | 34.43% ( -1.12) |
Both teams to score 58.56% ( -1.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.53% ( -1.28) | 44.47% ( 1.27) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.16% ( -1.25) | 66.84% ( 1.25) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.24% ( -0.13) | 21.76% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.06% ( -0.2) | 54.94% ( 0.19) |
Macarthur Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.85% ( -1.23) | 25.15% ( 1.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.14% ( -1.72) | 59.86% ( 1.72) |
Score Analysis |
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Macarthur |
2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.42) 2-0 @ 6.36% ( 0.3) 3-1 @ 4.47% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.24% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.7% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.5% Total : 40.89% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.3) 3-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.68% | 1-2 @ 7.95% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 7.55% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 3.66% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.17) 0-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.13) 1-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.12) 2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.64% Total : 34.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 18 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 14 |
5 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
6 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 11 |
7 | Macarthur | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 11 |
8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 9 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 2 |
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