Two sides that have experienced contrasting starts to the 2020-21 Premier League campaign meet on Saturday afternoon as Aston Villa play host to Brighton & Hove Albion.
Villa beat Arsenal 3-0 last time out to move within three points of top spot with a game in hand to play, while Brighton have one win from eight and are in relegation danger.
Match preview
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Two months into the season and Villa have already defeated Liverpool 7-2 at home and Arsenal 3-0 away in what is shaping up to be a truly memorable campaign for the club.
The win at the Emirates Stadium two weeks ago came on the back of successive defeats - to Leeds United and Southampton - with many predicting the wheels had already fallen off.
If that latest famous victory in North London is anything to go by, however, then Dean Smith's men may just be able to challenge for a European spot this season.
To put their form in some context, they have five wins from seven games and have scored 18 goals, whereas last season it took them 19 games to reach five wins and 13 games to score 18 times.
Villa's form is in stark contrast to that of Brighton, who have earned praise for their style of play under Graham Potter but have struggled to find the results to match it.
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The goalless draw with Burnley last time out sums things up nicely for the Seagulls, who bossed possession and had 19 shots without finding a way past Nick Pope.
Potter is not oblivious to the fact that results are ultimately the most important thing in this game, with Brighton hovering just three points above the dropzone.
Albion are now winless in their last six league outings, drawing three and losing three, but 12 of their last 15 top-flight points have been won in away matches.
That provides them with a bit of hope heading into this weekend's trip to the West Midlands, though they have never managed to beat the Villans in 12 away attempts.
In fact, Brighton have lost all five of their top-flight meetings at Villa Park, including a 2-1 loss when the sides last met there in October 2019.
Aston Villa Premier League form: WWWLLW
Aston Villa form (all competitions): LWWLLW
Brighton & Hove Albion Premier League form: LLDDLD
Brighton & Hove Albion form (all competitions): LLDDLD
Team News
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Smith will be reluctant to make any changes on the back of his side's victory over Arsenal, especially having found his favoured XI - no team has made fewer changes to their starting lineups this term.
A number of players have been away on international duty, with Jack Grealish starting three games for England in a little over a week, but no injuries have been reported.
Incidentally, Grealish has scored in each of his last four appearances against Brighton in all competitions, netting in all three meetings last season.
As for the visitors, skipper Lewis Dunk is back from a three-match suspension and will almost certainly slot into the backline, with Joel Veltman the most likely to make way.
Solly March is pushing to be fit and, if that is the case, he should get the nod over Dan Burn at left wing-back.
In attack, Neal Maupay is back in favour again and will be looking to build on a return of four goals in seven Premier League appearances this season.
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Targett; Luiz, McGinn; Trezeguet, Barkley, Grealish; Watkins
Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup:
Sanchez; Webster, Dunk, Burn; Lamptey, White, Bissouma, March; Lallana, Trossard; Maupay
We say: Aston Villa 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion
The international break may have come at a good time for Brighton, giving Potter's men a chance to regroup after five games without a win.
Even accounting for back-to-back defeats to Southampton and Leeds, Villa have been superb this campaign and will be looking to pick up from where they left off this weekend.
On the basis of the form book, and Brighton's losing streak at Villa Park, we can only see this game ending one way.
Top betting tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 37.33%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-0 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.
