Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sport Recife win with a probability of 40.34%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 30.5% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sport Recife win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.98%) and 2-1 (7.89%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.