Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 56.27%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 19.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.77%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 1-0 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.