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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 46.1%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.83%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
Result | ||
Freiburg | Draw | Augsburg |
46.1% ( 1.17) | 23.46% ( 0.02) | 30.44% ( -1.18) |
Both teams to score 61.27% ( -0.7) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.78% ( -0.65) | 40.21% ( 0.66) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.41% ( -0.68) | 62.59% ( 0.68) |
Freiburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.26% ( 0.21) | 17.74% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.58% ( 0.36) | 48.42% ( -0.35) |
Augsburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.49% ( -1.04) | 25.51% ( 1.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.65% ( -1.45) | 60.35% ( 1.46) |
Score Analysis |
Freiburg | Draw | Augsburg |
2-1 @ 9.24% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 7.83% ( 0.29) 2-0 @ 6.77% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.19) 3-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.3% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.69% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.84% Total : 46.1% | 1-1 @ 10.69% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 6.32% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.14) 3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.46% | 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.17) 0-1 @ 6.18% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 3.33% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.1) 2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.48% Total : 30.44% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 56 | 15 | 41 | 45 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 44 | 24 | 20 | 41 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
4 | Stuttgart | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 26 | 10 | 32 |
5 | RB Leipzig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 31 |
6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 28 |
7 | Wolfsburg | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 27 |
8 | Freiburg | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 27 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 26 |
10 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 25 |
11 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 24 |
12 | Augsburg | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 22 |
13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 20 |
14 | St Pauli | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 17 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 17 |
16 | Heidenheim | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 14 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 11 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 10 |
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