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Champions League header

Champions League
Benfica
Champions League | League Stage
Oct 2, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Atletico Madrid logo

Benfica
4 - 0
Atletico

Akturkoglu (13'), di Maria (52' pen.), Bah (75'), Kokcu (84' pen.)
Aursnes (23')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Serrano (70'), Gimenez (83'), Mandava (83'), Correa (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Benfica and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Benfica 5-1 Gil Vicente
Saturday, September 28 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Atletico 1-1 Real Madrid
Sunday, September 29 at 8pm in La Liga

We said: Benfica 1-1 Atletico Madrid

 Unbeaten since the arrival of new head coach Lage, Benfica should be relatively confident of providing a serious test for Atletico Madrid on Wednesday night. Los Colchoneros can extend their unbeaten run to 10 matches with a positive result in Lisbon, and we reckon that Simeone's troops will manage that particular feat with a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 49.47%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
BenficaDrawAtletico Madrid
49.47% (-0.335 -0.34) 24% (-0.34 -0.34) 26.52% (0.67 0.67)
Both teams to score 56.46% (1.723 1.72)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.73% (1.994 1.99)45.27% (-1.997 -2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.39% (1.881 1.88)67.61% (-1.883 -1.88)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.62% (0.636 0.64)18.38% (-0.639 -0.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.49% (1.071 1.07)49.51% (-1.074 -1.07)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.18% (1.584 1.58)30.82% (-1.587 -1.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.9% (1.826 1.83)67.1% (-1.829 -1.83)
Score Analysis
    Benfica 49.48%
    Atletico Madrid 26.52%
    Draw 24%
BenficaDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 9.6% (-0.635 -0.64)
2-1 @ 9.57%
2-0 @ 8.13% (-0.362 -0.36)
3-1 @ 5.4% (0.109 0.11)
3-0 @ 4.59% (-0.108 -0.11)
3-2 @ 3.18% (0.197 0.2)
4-1 @ 2.29% (0.091 0.09)
4-0 @ 1.94% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.35% (0.109 0.11)
Other @ 3.44%
Total : 49.48%
1-1 @ 11.29% (-0.23 -0.23)
0-0 @ 5.66% (-0.499 -0.5)
2-2 @ 5.63% (0.24 0.24)
3-3 @ 1.25% (0.127 0.13)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24%
0-1 @ 6.67% (-0.278 -0.28)
1-2 @ 6.65% (0.152 0.15)
0-2 @ 3.92% (0.01 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.61% (0.168 0.17)
2-3 @ 2.21% (0.184 0.18)
0-3 @ 1.54% (0.07 0.07)
Other @ 2.94%
Total : 26.52%

How you voted: Benfica vs Atletico

Benfica
28.3%
Draw
25.4%
Atletico Madrid
46.3%
350
Head to Head
Dec 8, 2015 7.45pm
Group Stage
Benfica
1-2
Atletico
Mitroglou (75')
Fejsa (77')
Niguez (33'), Vietto (55')
Godin (68'), Niguez (70'), Torres (89')
> Match Report
Sep 30, 2015 7.45pm
Group Stage
Atletico
1-2
Benfica
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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