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Championship | Gameweek 11
Oct 7, 2023 at 3pm UK
Cardiff City Stadium
Watford logo

Cardiff
1 - 1
Watford

FT(HT: 1-0)
Issouf Bayo (54')
Sierralta (39'), Lewis (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Cardiff City and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sunderland 2-0 Watford
Wednesday, October 4 at 7.45pm in Championship

We said: Cardiff City 2-1 Watford

With Cardiff having lost out at Middlesbrough, Watford will sense an opportunity to get back on track. Nevertheless, the Welsh side have been excellent at home this season and we cannot envisage Watford getting over the line, even if they do prove to be competitive. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 50.27%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Watford had a probability of 23.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.33%), while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.

Result
Cardiff CityDrawWatford
50.27% (0.509 0.51) 26.24% (-0.151 -0.15) 23.48% (-0.36 -0.36)
Both teams to score 46.71% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.34% (0.246 0.25)56.66% (-0.248 -0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.38% (0.198 0.2)77.62% (-0.2 -0.2)
Cardiff City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.38% (0.331 0.33)22.62% (-0.333 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.77% (0.491 0.49)56.23% (-0.492 -0.49)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.36% (-0.202 -0.2)39.64% (0.201 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.68% (-0.185 -0.18)76.32% (0.18299999999999 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Cardiff City 50.27%
    Watford 23.48%
    Draw 26.24%
Cardiff CityDrawWatford
1-0 @ 13.32%
2-0 @ 9.91% (0.101 0.1)
2-1 @ 9.17% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.91% (0.097 0.1)
3-1 @ 4.54% (0.066 0.07)
3-2 @ 2.1% (0.019 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.82% (0.054 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.69% (0.041 0.04)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 50.27%
1-1 @ 12.33% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 8.97% (-0.086 -0.09)
2-2 @ 4.24% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
Other @ 0.71%
Total : 26.24%
0-1 @ 8.3% (-0.126 -0.13)
1-2 @ 5.71% (-0.061 -0.06)
0-2 @ 3.84% (-0.079 -0.08)
1-3 @ 1.76% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.31% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.18% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.39%
Total : 23.48%

How you voted: Cardiff vs Watford

Cardiff City
71.4%
Draw
14.3%
Watford
14.3%
42
Head to Head
Apr 19, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 43
Watford
1-3
Cardiff
Sarr (11')
Etete (31'), Kipre (35'), Kaba (42')
Nov 2, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
Cardiff
1-2
Watford
Kipre (9')
Sierralta (38'), Sarr (59')
Mar 13, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 36
Cardiff
1-2
Watford
Sierralta (14' og.)
Bacuna (81'), Ng (90+2')
Chalobah (15'), Masina (90+3')
Bachmann (39'), Hughes (45+1'), Sarr (82'), Sierralta (85')
Dec 5, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 16
Watford
0-1
Cardiff

Perica (89')
Moore (43')
Ojo (60'), Ralls (66')
Feb 22, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 27
Cardiff
1-5
Watford
Bamba (82')
Paterson (85')
Deulofeu (18', 61', 63'), Deeney (73', 91')
Capoue (30'), Pereyra (55')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland1594225111431
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1510321971231
3Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
4Burnley157621861227
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom15672169725
6Watford158162322125
7Middlesbrough157352317624
8Millwall156541813523
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City155732019122
11Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
12Derby CountyDerby155461919019
13Stoke CityStoke155461819-119
14Norwich CityNorwich154652322118
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds155371725-818
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd154561718-117
17Coventry CityCoventry154472021-116
18Plymouth ArgylePlymouth154471526-1116
19Hull City153661620-415
20Preston North EndPreston153661523-815
21Luton TownLuton154381726-915
22Cardiff CityCardiff154381423-915
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR151771225-1310


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