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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 48.75%. A win for Leicester City had a probability of 28.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest Leicester City win was 1-2 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
Result | ||
Leeds United | Draw | Leicester City |
48.75% ( 0.02) | 22.73% ( 0.01) | 28.51% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 62.59% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.07% ( -0.05) | 37.93% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.81% ( -0.06) | 60.18% ( 0.06) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.12% ( -0.01) | 15.87% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.91% ( -0.02) | 45.09% ( 0.02) |
Leicester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.4% ( -0.05) | 25.6% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.52% ( -0.06) | 60.48% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Leeds United | Draw | Leicester City |
2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.48% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.88% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.75% 3-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.92% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.65% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 3.75% Total : 48.75% | 1-1 @ 10.19% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.39% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.78% ( -0) Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.73% | 1-2 @ 6.94% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.54% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.77% 1-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.71% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 2.43% Total : 28.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 51 | 19 | 32 | 56 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 55 |
3 | Burnley | 27 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 53 |
4 | Sunderland | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 51 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 42 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 27 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 41 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 41 |
8 | Watford | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 41 |
9 | Bristol City | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 37 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 36 |
12 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 35 |
13 | Swansea CitySwansea | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 34 |
14 | Coventry CityCoventry | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 32 |
15 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 32 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 27 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 31 |
17 | Millwall | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 30 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 28 |
19 | Derby CountyDerby | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 27 |
20 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 27 |
21 | Hull City | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 26 |
22 | Portsmouth | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 26 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 26 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 55 | -30 | 21 |
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