Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 46.23%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Luton Town in this match.