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FA Cup | Third Round Replays
Jan 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The DW Stadium
Luton Town

Wigan
1 - 2
Luton

Aasgaard (46')
Power (45+2'), Whatmough (56'), Tilt (79'), Hughes (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Woodrow (51'), Adebayo (90+8')
Burke (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Wigan Athletic and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wigan Athletic

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Cardiff 1-1 Wigan
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship

Luton Town

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Luton 2-3 West Brom
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Wigan Athletic 0-1 Luton Town

 This is a difficult match to call, but Luton will fancy their chances of progressing to the fourth round of the competition. Wigan managed to end a four-game losing run in the league by drawing with Cardiff on Saturday, but we believe that Luton will be able to navigate their way to a narrow win here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 46.2%. A win for Wigan Athletic had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.09%) and 0-2 (8.53%). The likeliest Wigan Athletic win was 1-0 (8.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.

Result
Wigan AthleticDrawLuton Town
27.58% (0.187 0.19) 26.21% (-0.435 -0.43) 46.2% (0.243 0.24)
Both teams to score 50.32% (1.407 1.41)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.27% (1.756 1.76)53.73% (-1.761 -1.76)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.79% (1.457 1.46)75.21% (-1.463 -1.46)
Wigan Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.53% (1.09 1.09)34.46% (-1.096 -1.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.82% (1.145 1.15)71.18% (-1.15 -1.15)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.78% (0.88 0.88)23.21% (-0.884 -0.88)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.88% (1.268 1.27)57.12% (-1.271 -1.27)
Score Analysis
    Wigan Athletic 27.58%
    Luton Town 46.2%
    Draw 26.21%
Wigan AthleticDrawLuton Town
1-0 @ 8.52% (-0.337 -0.34)
2-1 @ 6.63% (0.111 0.11)
2-0 @ 4.54% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-1 @ 2.35% (0.107 0.11)
3-2 @ 1.72% (0.121 0.12)
3-0 @ 1.61% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 27.58%
1-1 @ 12.44% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-0 @ 8% (-0.568 -0.57)
2-2 @ 4.84% (0.203 0.2)
Other @ 0.92%
Total : 26.21%
0-1 @ 11.68% (-0.51 -0.51)
1-2 @ 9.09% (0.117 0.12)
0-2 @ 8.53% (-0.145 -0.15)
1-3 @ 4.42% (0.169 0.17)
0-3 @ 4.15% (0.037 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.36% (0.156 0.16)
1-4 @ 1.62% (0.101 0.1)
0-4 @ 1.52% (0.052 0.05)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 46.2%

How you voted: Wigan vs Luton

Wigan Athletic
24.3%
Draw
17.6%
Luton Town
58.1%
74
Head to Head
Jan 7, 2023 5.30pm
Third Round
Luton
1-1
Wigan
Cornick (45+1')
Potts (89')
Naylor (17')
Sep 3, 2022 3pm
Luton
1-2
Wigan
Morris (39')
Morris (70')
Lockyer (80' og.), Aasgaard (88')
Power (90+3')
Mar 7, 2020 3pm
Wigan
0-0
Luton
> Match Report
Dec 7, 2019 3pm
Luton
2-1
Wigan
McManaman (87'), Moncur (92')
Moncur (93')
Moore (35')
Dunkley (49'), Pilkington (54'), Garner (61')
Dunkley (91')
> Match Report
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