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FA Cup
Luton Town
FA Cup | Fourth Round
Jan 28, 2023 at 3pm UK
Kenilworth Road
Grimsby Town

Luton
2 - 2
Grimsby Town

Adebayo (49' pen.), Clark (66')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Holohan (43'), Clifton (67')
Clifton (45+1'), Orsi (65'), Maher (73'), Holohan (88'), Crocombe (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Luton Town and Grimsby Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Wigan 0-2 Luton
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in Championship

Grimsby Town

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Swindon 5-0 Grimsby Town
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Luton Town 2-0 Grimsby Town

 Luton have won each of their last 16 FA Cup ties as a Football League club against teams from a lower division, and they will be regarded as favourites to come out on top on Saturday. Grimsby, meanwhile, have struggled away from home in recent weeks, losing five of their last six matches on the road, and another defeat could be on the cards at Kenilworth Road. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 52.63%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 24.25% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.39%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.

Result
Luton TownDrawGrimsby Town
52.63% (0.00099999999999767 0) 23.12%24.25%
Both teams to score 57.12% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.67% (0.0020000000000024 0)43.33% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.27% (0.0020000000000024 0)65.73% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.53%16.47%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.82% (0.00099999999999767 0)46.19% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Grimsby Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.39% (0.00099999999999056 0)31.61% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.99% (0.00099999999999767 0)68.01% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)
Score Analysis
    Luton Town 52.63%
    Grimsby Town 24.25%
    Draw 23.11%
Luton TownDrawGrimsby Town
2-1 @ 9.75%
1-0 @ 9.39% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 8.47%
3-1 @ 5.86%
3-0 @ 5.09%
3-2 @ 3.38%
4-1 @ 2.64%
4-0 @ 2.3%
4-2 @ 1.52%
5-1 @ 0.95%
Other @ 3.28%
Total : 52.63%
1-1 @ 10.81%
2-2 @ 5.62%
0-0 @ 5.21%
3-3 @ 1.3%
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 23.11%
1-2 @ 6.23%
0-1 @ 6%
0-2 @ 3.45%
1-3 @ 2.39%
2-3 @ 2.16%
0-3 @ 1.33%
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 24.25%

How you voted: Luton vs Grimsby Town

Luton Town
73.5%
Draw
11.8%
Grimsby Town
14.7%
34
Head to Head
Jan 27, 2018 3pm
Grimsby Town
0-1
Luton

Davies (41'), Dembele (80')
Collins (49')
Cook (21')
Cook (34')
Dec 23, 2017 3pm
Luton
2-0
Grimsby Town
Berry (40'), Collins (61')
Shinnie (38')

Clarke (19'), McKeown (57')
Feb 4, 2017 3pm
Grimsby Town
1-1
Luton
Clements (56')
Collins (64'), Comley (97')
Vassell (77')
Vassell (36'), Hylton (63'), Senior (76')
Sep 10, 2016 3pm
Luton
1-2
Grimsby Town
Rea (59')
Sheehan (54'), Potts (62'), Cook (75')
Bogle (29', 82')
Vose (78'), Comley (88'), Jackson (94'), Keown (94')
Mar 17, 2009 3pm
Luton
2-1
Grimsby Town
Bower (45'), Hall (89')
Bower (42'), Nicholls (90'), Craddock (90')
Bennett (43')
Akpa Akpro (67'), Hegarty (69'), Bore (82'), Henderson (90')
rhs 2.0
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