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Spezia Calcio logo
Coppa Italia | Second Round
Oct 19, 2022 at 2pm UK
Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia, Italy
Brescia logo

Spezia
3 - 1
Brescia

Strelec (20', 86'), Verde (55')
Ferrer (43'), Agudelo (79')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Moreo (90+3')
Olzer (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Coppa Italia clash between Spezia and Brescia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spezia

All competitions
Coppa Italia
Last Game: Spezia 2-2 Cremonese
Sunday, October 16 at 2pm in Serie A

Brescia

All competitions
Coppa Italia
Last Game: Cagliari 2-1 Brescia
Saturday, October 15 at 1pm in Serie B

We said: Spezia 2-1 Brescia

 The last time the two sides met, it ended in a 4-4 draw back in 2019 in Serie B, and even though both sides recorded big wins in the first round, any sort of repeat looks unlikely. Not many league places separate the sides, despite them being in different divisions, but Spezia's top-flight quality may just be enough to see off a Brescia side struggling for confidence. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 40.95%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 34.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.32%). The likeliest Spezia win was 2-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.

Result
SpeziaDrawBrescia
34.47% (0.0030000000000001 0) 24.58% (0.0019999999999989 0) 40.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Both teams to score 58.91% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.98% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)44.02% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.6% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)66.4% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Spezia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.09% (0.0019999999999953 0)24.91%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.46%59.54% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Brescia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.46% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)21.54% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.39% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)54.61% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Spezia 34.47%
    Brescia 40.95%
    Draw 24.57%
SpeziaDrawBrescia
2-1 @ 7.96%
1-0 @ 7.46% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 5.18% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 3.69%
3-2 @ 2.83%
3-0 @ 2.4% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.28%
4-2 @ 0.98%
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 34.47%
1-1 @ 11.44%
2-2 @ 6.11%
0-0 @ 5.37% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.45%
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.57%
1-2 @ 8.79%
0-1 @ 8.24% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 6.32% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 4.5%
0-3 @ 3.24%
2-3 @ 3.13% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 1.73%
0-4 @ 1.24% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 1.2%
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 40.95%

How you voted: Spezia vs Brescia

Spezia
50.0%
Draw
38.9%
Brescia
11.1%
36
Head to Head
Jan 27, 2019 5pm
Brescia
4-4
Spezia
Tonali (24'), Donnarumma (45', 55', 77' pen.)
Bisoli (80')
Mora (1'), Bidaoui (40', 48'), Okereke (64' pen.)
Mora (30'), Terzi (45'), Bartolomei (57')
Sep 1, 2018 5pm
Spezia
3-2
Brescia
Pierini (6', 17'), Gyasi (74')
Ricci (53'), Okereke (64'), Mora (76')
Donnarumma (1'), Morosini (20')
Lancini (65')
Apr 17, 2018 7.30pm
Spezia
0-1
Brescia

Masi (34'), Mora (40')
Torregrossa (18')
Rivas (13')
Nov 18, 2017 2pm
Brescia
1-1
Spezia
Caracciolo (72')
Dall'Oglio (45'), Cancellotti (56')
Dall'Oglio (84')
Ammari (78')
Giani (30'), De Col (79'), Marilungo (81')
rhs 2.0
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