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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 63.59%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (4.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
63.59% ( 0.23) | 20.3% ( 0.03) | 16.11% ( -0.26) |
Both teams to score 53.11% ( -0.69) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.84% ( -0.63) | 42.16% ( 0.63) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.44% ( -0.63) | 64.56% ( 0.63) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.4% ( -0.13) | 12.6% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.3% ( -0.26) | 38.7% ( 0.27) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.77% ( -0.7) | 39.23% ( 0.7) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.06% ( -0.66) | 75.94% ( 0.67) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
2-0 @ 10.6% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.32% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.55% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.4% Total : 63.58% | 1-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.64% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.3% | 0-1 @ 4.63% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.05) Other @ 2% Total : 16.11% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 18 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 61 | 15 | 46 | 46 |
2 | Ajax | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 17 | 22 | 42 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 39 |
4 | Feyenoord | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 41 | 23 | 18 | 35 |
5 | FC Twente | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 23 | 15 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 28 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 25 |
9 | Heerenveen | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
10 | Willem II | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 22 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 22 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 20 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 17 |
15 | Heracles | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 15 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 13 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 10 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 7 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |