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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 78.07%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 8.24%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.35%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
78.07% ( -0.07) | 13.68% ( 0.04) | 8.24% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 51.33% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
68.59% ( -0.07) | 31.41% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
47.13% ( -0.08) | 52.87% ( 0.08) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.55% ( -0.03) | 6.45% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
75.87% ( -0.07) | 24.13% ( 0.07) |
RKC Waalwijk Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.87% ( 0.02) | 45.13% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.96% ( 0.02) | 81.03% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
2-0 @ 10.93% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.7% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.95% ( -0) 4-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 3.75% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.16% ( 0) 5-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.17% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 1.19% ( -0) Other @ 3.88% Total : 78.07% | 1-1 @ 6.35% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.96% Total : 13.68% | 1-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.32% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 0.92% ( 0) 2-3 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 1.56% Total : 8.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 20 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 65 | 20 | 45 | 49 |
2 | Ajax | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 24 | 45 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 41 |
4 | Feyenoord | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
5 | FC Twente | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 21 | 13 | 34 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 25 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 25 |
10 | Heerenveen | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 24 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 23 |
12 | Willem II | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 23 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 23 |
14 | Groningen | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 21 |
15 | Heracles | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 20 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 17 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 11 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | -29 | 10 |
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