MX23RW : Monday, December 23 16:52:42| >> :300:86500:86500:
AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
FC Twente logo
FC Utrecht
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard
Go Ahead Eagles
Groningen
Heerenveen
Heracles Almelo
NAC Breda
NEC
PEC Zwolle
PSV
Waalwijk logo
Sparta Rotterdam logo
Willem II
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie | Gameweek 25
Mar 10, 2024 at 11.15am UK
AFAS Stadion
Excelsior

AZ
4 - 0
Excelsior

de Wit (13'), Pavlidis (15'), Mijnans (25', 72')
FT(HT: 3-0)

de Moes (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Eredivisie
Last Game: Sparta 1-1 AZ
Saturday, March 2 at 8pm in Eredivisie

SBV Excelsior

All competitions
Last Game: Sittard 5-2 Excelsior
Sunday, March 3 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

We said: AZ Alkmaar 3-1 SBV Excelsior

 AZ's form has been indifferent in recent months, but they are still in a commanding position to qualify for Europe once again, meaning they will be determined to return to winning ways. Excelsior have lost five straight matches and we are predicting a sixth successive defeat for the visitors, even if they have enough attacking quality to make an interesting game of it. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 75.37%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.71%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.9%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ AlkmaarDrawSBV Excelsior
75.37% (0.783 0.78) 14.92% (-0.109 -0.11) 9.71% (-0.671 -0.67)
Both teams to score 52.98% (-2.475 -2.48)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.42% (-1.717 -1.72)32.57% (1.719 1.72)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.77% (-2.016 -2.02)54.23% (2.018 2.02)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.77% (-0.23399999999999 -0.23)7.23% (0.2369 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
73.78% (-0.623 -0.62)26.22% (0.626 0.63)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.11% (-2.516 -2.52)42.89% (2.519 2.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.8% (-2.205 -2.21)79.19% (2.208 2.21)
Score Analysis
    AZ Alkmaar 75.36%
    SBV Excelsior 9.71%
    Draw 14.92%
AZ AlkmaarDrawSBV Excelsior
2-0 @ 10.69% (0.702 0.7)
3-0 @ 9.37% (0.511 0.51)
2-1 @ 9.06% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-0 @ 8.14% (0.635 0.64)
3-1 @ 7.93% (-0.104 -0.1)
4-0 @ 6.15% (0.262 0.26)
4-1 @ 5.21% (-0.135 -0.14)
3-2 @ 3.36% (-0.288 -0.29)
5-0 @ 3.23% (0.099 0.1)
5-1 @ 2.74% (-0.106 -0.11)
4-2 @ 2.21% (-0.219 -0.22)
6-0 @ 1.42% (0.026 0.03)
6-1 @ 1.2% (-0.063 -0.06)
5-2 @ 1.16% (-0.131 -0.13)
Other @ 3.51%
Total : 75.36%
1-1 @ 6.9% (0.082999999999999 0.08)
2-2 @ 3.83% (-0.276 -0.28)
0-0 @ 3.1% (0.277 0.28)
3-3 @ 0.95% (-0.155 -0.16)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 14.92%
1-2 @ 2.92% (-0.171 -0.17)
0-1 @ 2.63% (0.064 0.06)
0-2 @ 1.11% (-0.05 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.08% (-0.161 -0.16)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 9.71%

How you voted: AZ vs Excelsior

AZ Alkmaar
94.1%
Draw
5.9%
SBV Excelsior
0.0%
17
Head to Head
Nov 4, 2023 5.45pm
Gameweek 11
Excelsior
1-1
AZ
Sandra (90+1')
Lamprou (7'), Baas (71')
Lahdo (72')
de Wit (25'), Bazoer (68'), Moller Wolfe (88')
> Preview
Feb 10, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 21
AZ
5-0
Excelsior
Mijnans (20', 30'), Karlsson (27'), Odgaard (35'), Pavlidis (38')
> Preview
Oct 23, 2022 11.15am
Gameweek 11
Excelsior
2-1
AZ
Horemans (6'), Azarkan (31')
Sugawara (48')
> Preview
May 15, 2019 6.30pm
Gameweek 33
Excelsior
4-2
AZ
Fortes (21'), Van Rhijn (51' og.), Bruins (60' pen.), Omarsson (66')
Mattheij (41')
Koopmeiners (30'), Johnsen (70')
Gudmundsson (59')
Dec 15, 2018 6.45pm
Gameweek 16
AZ
2-1
Excelsior
Til (39'), Johnsen (94')
Ouwejan (57')
Mahmudov (30')
Fortes (75')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV17150259134645
2Ajax17123237162139
3FC UtrechtUtrecht1711333428636
4Feyenoord17105240211935
5AZ AlkmaarAZ17102531171432
6FC Twente1794432211131
7Go Ahead Eagles177463027325
8Fortuna SittardSittard177462525025
9Willem II176472119222
10NAC BredaNAC Breda177191927-822
11Heerenveen176381731-1421
12NECNijmegen1752102324-117
13PEC Zwolle174581626-1017
14Groningen164481426-1216
15Heracles163581833-1514
16Sparta RotterdamSparta172691426-1212
17Almere CityAlmere City1723121037-279
18RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk1714121841-237
> Eredivisie Full Table


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