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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 67.81%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 14.46%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 1-0 (7.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.98%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (4.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vitesse |
67.81% ( -0) | 17.73% ( 0) | 14.46% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 58.39% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.64% ( -0) | 33.36% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
44.86% ( -0.01) | 55.14% ( 0.01) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.97% ( -0) | 9.03% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.27% ( -0) | 30.73% ( 0.01) |
Vitesse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.19% ( -0) | 35.81% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.41% ( -0) | 72.59% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vitesse |
2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.35% 1-0 @ 7.77% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.7% 3-0 @ 7.5% 4-1 @ 4.63% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.51% 3-2 @ 3.95% 4-2 @ 2.38% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.23% ( -0) 5-0 @ 2.17% 5-2 @ 1.14% Other @ 4.9% Total : 67.81% | 1-1 @ 7.98% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.93% 0-0 @ 3.23% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.35% Other @ 0.23% Total : 17.73% | 1-2 @ 4.1% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.32% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.7% 2-3 @ 1.69% 1-3 @ 1.4% Other @ 2.25% Total : 14.46% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 19 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 62 | 18 | 44 | 46 |
2 | Ajax | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 24 | 45 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 40 |
4 | Feyenoord | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
5 | FC Twente | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 34 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 25 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 25 |
10 | Heerenveen | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 24 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 23 |
12 | Willem II | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 23 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 20 |
14 | Heracles | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 18 |
15 | Groningen | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 17 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 14 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | -29 | 10 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 8 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |