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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 19.42%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.71%) and 0-1 (8.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 2-1 (5.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Ajax |
19.42% ( 0.24) | 20.39% ( -0.06) | 60.2% ( -0.17) |
Both teams to score 59.64% ( 0.68) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.22% ( 0.69) | 36.78% ( -0.68) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.05% ( 0.74) | 58.95% ( -0.74) |
RKC Waalwijk Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.7% ( 0.64) | 32.3% ( -0.64) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.2% ( 0.72) | 68.8% ( -0.72) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.1% ( 0.17) | 11.9% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.76% ( 0.35) | 37.24% ( -0.34) |
Score Analysis |
RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 5.23% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 2.46% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.1% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 1.97% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.4% Total : 19.42% | 1-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 3.85% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.39% | 1-2 @ 9.84% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.71% ( -0.18) 0-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.22) 1-3 @ 6.98% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 6.18% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 3.95% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 3.72% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 3.29% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 2.1% ( 0.06) 1-5 @ 1.58% ( 0.02) 0-5 @ 1.4% ( -0) Other @ 4.28% Total : 60.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 23 | 45 | 50 |
2 | Ajax | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 18 | 25 | 48 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 37 |
5 | Feyenoord | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 43 | 26 | 17 | 36 |
6 | FC Twente | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 35 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 32 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 26 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 26 |
10 | Heerenveen | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 25 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 24 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 24 |
13 | Willem II | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 23 |
14 | Heracles | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 21 |
15 | Groningen | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 21 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 20 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 14 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 43 | -32 | 10 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |