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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 58.91%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 18.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (6.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
Result | ||
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Morecambe |
58.91% ( 0.28) | 22.95% ( 0.18) | 18.14% ( -0.47) |
Both teams to score 48.74% ( -1.4) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.9% ( -1.43) | 50.09% ( 1.43) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.93% ( -1.29) | 72.06% ( 1.29) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.31% ( -0.41) | 16.68% ( 0.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.44% ( -0.74) | 46.56% ( 0.73) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.49% ( -1.38) | 41.5% ( 1.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22% ( -1.24) | 78% ( 1.23) |
Score Analysis |
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Morecambe |
1-0 @ 12.39% ( 0.54) 2-0 @ 11.1% ( 0.34) 2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 5.83% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.61% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.9% Total : 58.9% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.2) Other @ 0.83% Total : 22.95% | 0-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 4.8% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.11) Other @ 1.91% Total : 18.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 58 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 46 |
3 | Port Vale | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 44 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 43 |
5 | Notts County | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 43 |
6 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 43 |
7 | Salford City | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 42 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 41 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 38 |
10 | Chesterfield | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 35 |
11 | Bromley | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 34 |
12 | MK Dons | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 35 | 3 | 34 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 31 |
14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 30 |
15 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 25 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 30 |
16 | Gillingham | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 30 |
17 | BarrowBarrow | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 28 |
18 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 28 |
19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 28 |
20 | Newport CountyNewport | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 26 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 25 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 39 | -21 | 25 |
23 | Morecambe | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 20 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 19 | 39 | -20 | 18 |
> League Two Full Table |