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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 41.76%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 34.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.58%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 2-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
Result | ||
Morecambe | Draw | Notts County |
34.3% ( -0.26) | 23.94% ( 0.02) | 41.76% ( 0.24) |
Both teams to score 61.21% ( -0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.99% ( -0.17) | 41.01% ( 0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.6% ( -0.17) | 63.4% ( 0.18) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.4% ( -0.22) | 23.6% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.32% ( -0.32) | 57.68% ( 0.33) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.11% ( 0.04) | 19.88% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48% ( 0.06) | 52% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Morecambe | Draw | Notts County |
2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 6.78% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.89% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.8% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 2.36% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.02% Total : 34.3% | 1-1 @ 10.94% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.38% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.69% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.93% | 1-2 @ 8.84% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 7.58% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 6.12% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.76% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.3% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.39% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.09% Total : 41.76% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
> League Two Full Table |