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AFC Wimbledon
Accrington Stanley
Barrow
Bradford City
Bromley
Carlisle United
Cheltenham Town
Chesterfield
Colchester United
Crewe Alexandra
Doncaster Rovers
Fleetwood Town
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
Harrogate Town
MK Dons
Morecambe
Newport County
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Salford City
Swindon Town
Tranmere Rovers
Walsall
Cheltenham Town
League Two | Gameweek 11
Oct 12, 2024 at 3pm UK
Jonny-Rocks Stadium
Swindon Town

Cheltenham
2 - 3
Swindon

Miller (63'), Archer (78')
Shipley (43'), Miller (59')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Cox (30'), Wright (34'), McGregor (47')
Ofoborh (14'), Kennedy (15'), Cox (45+2'), Longelo-Mbule (85'), Wright (90+5'), Barden (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Cheltenham Town and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Barrow 2-1 Cheltenham
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Cheltenham Town 1-1 Swindon Town

Swindon have not exactly been full of goals this season, and they have only won once in the league in 2024-25, so it is difficult to back them with any real confidence. Cheltenham's form is not great, though, and we are struggling to find a winner here, ultimately settling on a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (9.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.

Result
Cheltenham TownDrawSwindon Town
35.33% (-0.185 -0.18) 26.03% (-0.166 -0.17) 38.63% (0.351 0.35)
Both teams to score 54.03% (0.532 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.6% (0.688 0.69)50.39% (-0.69 -0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (0.606 0.61)72.33% (-0.605 -0.61)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.56% (0.217 0.22)27.43% (-0.218 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.08% (0.278 0.28)62.91% (-0.28 -0.28)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.45% (0.511 0.51)25.54% (-0.512 -0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.59% (0.694 0.69)60.4% (-0.695 -0.7)
Score Analysis
    Cheltenham Town 35.33%
    Swindon Town 38.63%
    Draw 26.03%
Cheltenham TownDrawSwindon Town
1-0 @ 9.06% (-0.198 -0.2)
2-1 @ 8% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.86% (-0.091 -0.09)
3-1 @ 3.45% (0.018 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.53% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.35% (0.047 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.12% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 35.33%
1-1 @ 12.37% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 7.01% (-0.197 -0.2)
2-2 @ 5.46% (0.074999999999999 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 26.03%
0-1 @ 9.56% (-0.127 -0.13)
1-2 @ 8.44% (0.065000000000001 0.07)
0-2 @ 6.53% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.84% (0.085 0.09)
0-3 @ 2.97% (0.048 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.48% (0.069 0.07)
1-4 @ 1.31% (0.047 0.05)
0-4 @ 1.01% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 38.63%

How you voted: Cheltenham vs Swindon

Cheltenham Town
47.5%
Draw
20.0%
Swindon Town
32.5%
40
Head to Head
Apr 10, 2020 3pm
Nov 19, 2019 7.45pm
First Round
Swindon
0-1
Cheltenham

Jaiyesimi (71')
Addai (50')
Raglan (38'), Doyle-Hayes (71'), Lloyd (84')
Nov 9, 2019 3pm
First Round
Cheltenham
1-1
Swindon
Addai (93')
Thomas (57'), Boyle (76'), Long (95')
Yates (91')
Hunt (80')
Aug 24, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 5
Cheltenham
2-2
Swindon
Hussey (19'), Varney (41')
Broom (25')
Doyle (6', 33')
Isgrove (19'), Lyden (78')
Doughty (71')
Apr 27, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 45
Cheltenham
3-2
Swindon
Woolfenden (26' og.), Waters (30'), Dawson (37')
Tozer (41'), Boyle (92'), Raglan (94')
Robinson (84'), Richards (90')
Woolfenden (91')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall19124335191640
2Port Vale2010642619736
3Crewe AlexandraCrewe209832416835
4AFC Wimbledon19103631161533
5Doncaster RoversDoncaster209652823533
6Chesterfield2087535231231
7Grimsby Town2010192730-331
8MK Dons1893630201030
9Gillingham209382218430
10Bradford CityBradford197752419528
11Notts County197752521428
12Salford City197662019127
13Cheltenham TownCheltenham217682930-127
14Bromley195952323024
15Fleetwood TownFleetwood185852423123
16Colchester UnitedColchester2041152322123
17BarrowBarrow196581818023
18Newport CountyNewport196582128-723
19Tranmere RoversTranmere195681426-1221
20Harrogate TownHarrogate2063111730-1321
21Accrington StanleyAccrington194782634-819
22Swindon TownSwindon2037102334-1116
23Morecambe2035121936-1714
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle1935111532-1714


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