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Championship header 2

League Two
Cheltenham Town
League Two | Gameweek 11
Oct 12, 2024 at 3pm UK
Jonny-Rocks Stadium
Swindon Town

Cheltenham
2 - 3
Swindon

Miller (63'), Archer (78')
Shipley (43'), Miller (59')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Cox (30'), Wright (34'), McGregor (47')
Ofoborh (14'), Kennedy (15'), Cox (45+2'), Longelo-Mbule (85'), Wright (90+5'), Barden (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Cheltenham Town and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
Last Game: Barrow 2-1 Cheltenham
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in League Two

Swindon Town

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Swindon 4-0 Bristol Rovers
Tuesday, October 8 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Cheltenham Town 1-1 Swindon Town

 Swindon have not exactly been full of goals this season, and they have only won once in the league in 2024-25, so it is difficult to back them with any real confidence. Cheltenham's form is not great, though, and we are struggling to find a winner here, ultimately settling on a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (9.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.

Result
Cheltenham TownDrawSwindon Town
35.33% (-0.185 -0.18) 26.03% (-0.166 -0.17) 38.63% (0.351 0.35)
Both teams to score 54.03% (0.532 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.6% (0.688 0.69)50.39% (-0.69 -0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (0.606 0.61)72.33% (-0.605 -0.61)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.56% (0.217 0.22)27.43% (-0.218 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.08% (0.278 0.28)62.91% (-0.28 -0.28)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.45% (0.511 0.51)25.54% (-0.512 -0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.59% (0.694 0.69)60.4% (-0.695 -0.7)
Score Analysis
    Cheltenham Town 35.33%
    Swindon Town 38.63%
    Draw 26.03%
Cheltenham TownDrawSwindon Town
1-0 @ 9.06% (-0.198 -0.2)
2-1 @ 8% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.86% (-0.091 -0.09)
3-1 @ 3.45% (0.018 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.53% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.35% (0.047 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.12% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 35.33%
1-1 @ 12.37% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 7.01% (-0.197 -0.2)
2-2 @ 5.46% (0.074999999999999 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 26.03%
0-1 @ 9.56% (-0.127 -0.13)
1-2 @ 8.44% (0.065000000000001 0.07)
0-2 @ 6.53% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.84% (0.085 0.09)
0-3 @ 2.97% (0.048 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.48% (0.069 0.07)
1-4 @ 1.31% (0.047 0.05)
0-4 @ 1.01% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 38.63%

How you voted: Cheltenham vs Swindon

Cheltenham Town
47.5%
Draw
20.0%
Swindon Town
32.5%
40
Head to Head
Apr 10, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 43
Swindon
P-P
Cheltenham
Nov 19, 2019 7.45pm
First Round
Swindon
0-1
Cheltenham

Jaiyesimi (71')
Addai (50')
Raglan (38'), Doyle-Hayes (71'), Lloyd (84')
Nov 9, 2019 3pm
First Round
Cheltenham
1-1
Swindon
Addai (93')
Thomas (57'), Boyle (76'), Long (95')
Yates (91')
Hunt (80')
Aug 24, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 5
Cheltenham
2-2
Swindon
Hussey (19'), Varney (41')
Broom (25')
Doyle (6', 33')
Isgrove (19'), Lyden (78')
Doughty (71')
Apr 27, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 45
Cheltenham
3-2
Swindon
Woolfenden (26' og.), Waters (30'), Dawson (37')
Tozer (41'), Boyle (92'), Raglan (94')
Robinson (84'), Richards (90')
Woolfenden (91')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall25184352232958
2Crewe AlexandraCrewe261210434221246
3Port Vale2612863227544
4AFC Wimbledon24134737191843
5Notts County25127641261543
6Doncaster RoversDoncaster2612773630643
7Salford City2512672921842
8Bradford CityBradford2511863427741
9Grimsby Town26122123741-438
10Chesterfield259883930935
11Bromley2581073531434
12MK Dons24104103835334
13Cheltenham TownCheltenham2587103438-431
14Fleetwood TownFleetwood237973028230
15Colchester UnitedColchester2561272928130
16Gillingham2493122225-330
17BarrowBarrow2577112328-528
18Swindon TownSwindon27610113341-828
19Harrogate TownHarrogate2684142337-1428
20Newport CountyNewport2475123243-1126
21Accrington StanleyAccrington2467113243-1125
22Tranmere RoversTranmere2567121839-2125
23Morecambe2555152240-1820
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2546151939-2018
> League Two Full Table


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