Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 50.76%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 27.28% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.91%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-2 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.