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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 58.91%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 18.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (6.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
Result | ||
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Morecambe |
58.91% ( 0.28) | 22.95% ( 0.18) | 18.14% ( -0.47) |
Both teams to score 48.74% ( -1.4) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.9% ( -1.43) | 50.09% ( 1.43) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.93% ( -1.29) | 72.06% ( 1.29) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.31% ( -0.41) | 16.68% ( 0.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.44% ( -0.74) | 46.56% ( 0.73) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.49% ( -1.38) | 41.5% ( 1.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22% ( -1.24) | 78% ( 1.23) |
Score Analysis |
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Morecambe |
1-0 @ 12.39% ( 0.54) 2-0 @ 11.1% ( 0.34) 2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 5.83% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.61% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.9% Total : 58.9% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.2) Other @ 0.83% Total : 22.95% | 0-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 4.8% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.11) Other @ 1.91% Total : 18.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 40 |
2 | Port Vale | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 36 |
3 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 34 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 33 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 33 |
6 | Chesterfield | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 31 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 31 |
8 | MK Dons | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 30 |
9 | Gillingham | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 29 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 28 |
11 | Notts County | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 28 |
12 | Salford City | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 27 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 26 |
14 | Bromley | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 23 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 23 |
17 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 22 |
18 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 22 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 18 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 16 |
23 | Morecambe | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 14 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 14 |
> League Two Full Table |