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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 60.6%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 19.45%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.3%) and 1-0 (7.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
60.6% ( -0.04) | 19.94% ( -0.09) | 19.45% ( 0.12) |
Both teams to score 61.37% ( 0.55) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.42% ( 0.62) | 34.57% ( -0.62) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.48% ( 0.69) | 56.51% ( -0.69) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.88% ( 0.18) | 11.12% ( -0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.45% ( 0.39) | 35.55% ( -0.39) |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.05% ( 0.48) | 30.95% ( -0.49) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.75% ( 0.56) | 67.25% ( -0.57) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 8.3% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 7.56% ( -0.19) 3-1 @ 7.13% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 6.08% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 3.91% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 3.34% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.88% Total : 60.6% | 1-1 @ 8.87% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.29% Total : 19.94% | 1-2 @ 5.2% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.04% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.66% Total : 19.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 18 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 61 | 15 | 46 | 46 |
2 | Ajax | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 17 | 22 | 42 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 39 |
4 | Feyenoord | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 41 | 23 | 18 | 35 |
5 | FC Twente | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 23 | 15 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 28 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 25 |
9 | Heerenveen | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
10 | Willem II | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 22 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 22 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 20 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 17 |
15 | Heracles | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 15 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 13 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 10 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 7 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |