We said: Atalanta BC 2-1 Fiorentina
It will surely be an entertaining encounter at the Gewiss Stadium, as these clubs shared 10 goals in two games last season and have started off on the front foot this term.
Atalanta have the highest xG in Serie A so far (6.2), while Fiorentina have fired in the most shots on target (21) and recorded the best shooting accuracy (64%) - but home advantage should see La Dea shade it.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.03%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 1-0 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.09) 
