We said: Elfsborg 1-2 Roma
While Roma are set to rest several players, they have sharpened up since changing manager and will still prove too strong for Elfsborg.
Some bright attacking talent is available to Ivan Juric, so the Giallorossi will get off the mark with a first European win of the season.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elfsborg win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Roma had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Elfsborg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Elfsborg in this match.