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Championship header 2

Championship
Luton Town
Championship | Gameweek 22
Dec 20, 2024 at 8pm UK
Kenilworth Road Stadium
Derby logo

Luton
2 - 1
Derby

Holmes (89'), Morris (90+2')
Andersen (37')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Jackson (58')
Phillips (41'), Elder (67'), Nelson (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Luton Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions
Last Game: Blackburn 2-0 Luton
Saturday, December 14 at 3pm in Championship

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 4-0 Portsmouth
Friday, December 13 at 8pm in Championship

We said: Luton Town 2-1 Derby County

 Despite their overall recent struggles, Luton are still a formidable opponent in front of their Kenilworth Road crowd, especially if the supporters have something to cheer about. Derby are notoriously poor on their second-tier travels and without the talents of Cashin in the side, we envisage the Rams suffering a narrow defeat in Bedfordshire. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 47.64%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Luton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Luton Town.

Result
Luton TownDrawDerby County
47.64% (1.005 1.01) 26.1% (0.0079999999999991 0.01) 26.25% (-1.015 -1.02)
Both teams to score 49.63% (-0.80099999999999 -0.8)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.87% (-0.663 -0.66)54.13% (0.661 0.66)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.45% (-0.557 -0.56)75.55% (0.55499999999999 0.55)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.27% (0.179 0.18)22.72% (-0.18 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.6% (0.264 0.26)56.39% (-0.267 -0.27)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.23% (-1.189 -1.19)35.77% (1.188 1.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.46% (-1.239 -1.24)72.54% (1.238 1.24)
Score Analysis
    Luton Town 47.64%
    Derby County 26.25%
    Draw 26.1%
Luton TownDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 12.04% (0.37 0.37)
2-1 @ 9.17% (0.038 0.04)
2-0 @ 8.92% (0.32 0.32)
3-1 @ 4.53% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.41% (0.181 0.18)
3-2 @ 2.33% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-1 @ 1.68% (0.024 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.63% (0.075 0.08)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 47.64%
1-1 @ 12.38% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.13% (0.208 0.21)
2-2 @ 4.72% (-0.134 -0.13)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 26.1%
0-1 @ 8.36% (-0.054 -0.05)
1-2 @ 6.37% (-0.216 -0.22)
0-2 @ 4.3% (-0.169 -0.17)
1-3 @ 2.18% (-0.149 -0.15)
2-3 @ 1.62% (-0.101 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.47% (-0.109 -0.11)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 26.25%

How you voted: Luton vs Derby

Luton Town
78.6%
Draw
12.2%
Derby County
9.2%
131
Head to Head
Feb 26, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 35
Luton
1-0
Derby
Hylton (67')
Burke (52'), Jerome (72')

Kazim-Richards (77'), Ebiowei (90+3')
> Preview
Oct 19, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
Derby
2-2
Luton
Lawrence (20'), Knight (60')
Lawrence (90+2')
Onyedinma (49'), Adebayo (84')
Naismith (14'), Ruddock (90+2')
> Preview
Apr 2, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 39
Derby
2-0
Luton
Gregory (7'), Shinnie (49' pen.)
Wisdom (47'), Sibley (51'), Byrne (66'), Kazim-Richards (90+5')

Dewsbury-Hall (66'), Pearson (81')
> Match Report
Sep 19, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 2
Luton
2-1
Derby
Berry (34'), Clark (87')
Norrington-Davies (22'), Ruddock (90+4')
Marriott (52')
> Match Report
Jan 28, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 29
Luton
3-2
Derby
Ruddock (67'), Daniels (74'), Bogle (86' og.)
Ruddock (70')
Mark Rooney (63'), Martin (85')
Bogle (23'), Hamer (88'), Rooney (88'), Wisdom (94')
Lowe (88')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds26158348192953
2Burnley26141023192252
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd26166436171952
4Sunderland26148439221750
5Middlesbrough26118743321141
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom26913432211140
7Blackburn RoversBlackburn2511682823539
8Bristol City2691073330337
9Watford25114103536-137
10Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds2610793840-237
11Norwich CityNorwich269984337636
12Swansea CitySwansea2697103030034
13Queens Park RangersQPR2671182934-532
14Millwall257992423130
15Preston North EndPreston2661282834-630
16Coventry CityCoventry2678113437-329
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd2577112840-1228
18Derby CountyDerby2676133135-427
19Stoke CityStoke2669112432-827
20Luton TownLuton2674152744-1725
21Portsmouth2458113041-1123
22Hull City2658132536-1123
23Cardiff CityCardiff2558122540-1523
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth2548132453-2920
> Championship Full Table


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