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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 39.98%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 35.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.65%) and 0-2 (5.94%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
Result | ||
Mainz 05 | Draw | RB Leipzig |
35.79% ( 0.14) | 24.22% ( 0.03) | 39.98% ( -0.17) |
Both teams to score 60.47% ( -0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.9% ( -0.15) | 42.1% ( 0.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.5% ( -0.15) | 64.5% ( 0.14) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.71% ( 0) | 23.29% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.77% ( 0.01) | 57.22% ( -0.02) |
RB Leipzig Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.83% ( -0.15) | 21.17% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.96% ( -0.23) | 54.03% ( 0.22) |
Score Analysis |
Mainz 05 | Draw | RB Leipzig |
2-1 @ 8.13% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.18% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 5.23% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.44% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.21% Total : 35.79% | 1-1 @ 11.15% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.22% | 1-2 @ 8.66% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.94% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.48% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.7% Total : 39.98% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 7 | 25 | 23 |
2 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 20 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
4 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 16 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 16 |
6 | Freiburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 16 |
7 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 15 |
8 | Stuttgart | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
10 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
11 | Augsburg | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
12 | Heidenheim | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 |
14 | Wolfsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
15 | St Pauli | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
16 | Hoffenheim | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 8 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 1 |
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