Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 47%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
29.15% ( -0.66) | 23.84% ( -0.02) | 47% ( 0.68) |
Both teams to score 59.08% ( -0.39) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.25% ( -0.31) | 42.75% ( 0.31) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.85% ( -0.31) | 65.15% ( 0.31) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.38% ( -0.61) | 27.62% ( 0.6) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.85% ( -0.78) | 63.15% ( 0.78) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.62% ( 0.15) | 18.38% ( -0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.49% ( 0.25) | 49.51% ( -0.25) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
2-1 @ 7.12% ( -0.11) 1-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 3.05% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 1.8% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.88% Total : 29.15% | 1-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.03% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.84% | 1-2 @ 9.37% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 8.6% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 7.28% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 5.29% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 4.11% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 3.41% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.24% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 1.74% ( 0.06) 2-4 @ 1.44% ( -0) Other @ 3.52% Total : 47% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 49 |
2 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 48 |
3 | Barcelona | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 59 | 24 | 35 | 42 |
4 | Athletic Bilbao | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 40 |
5 | Villarreal | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 44 | 33 | 11 | 37 |
6 | Rayo Vallecano | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 32 |
7 | Mallorca | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 30 |
8 | GironaGirona | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 28 |
9 | Real Sociedad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 28 |
10 | Real BetisBetis | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 28 |
11 | Sevilla | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 28 |
12 | Osasuna | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 27 |
13 | Celta Vigo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 25 |
14 | Getafe | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 23 |
16 | Leganes | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 23 |
17 | Espanyol | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 23 |
18 | AlavesAlaves | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 21 |
19 | Valencia | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 36 | -16 | 16 |
20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 15 |
> La Liga Full Table |