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Ligue 1
Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 16
Dec 29, 2022 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Toulouse

Marseille
6 - 1
Toulouse

Rongier (13'), Nicolaisen (41' og.), Kolasinac (51'), Payet (61'), Under (80' pen.), Tavares (82')
Clauss (65')
FT(HT: 2-0)
van den Boomen (66' pen.)
Mawissa (79'), van den Boomen (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Monaco 2-3 Marseille
Sunday, November 13 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Toulouse

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Galatasaray 2-1 Toulouse
Friday, December 16 at 2pm in Club Friendlies 1

We said: Marseille 2-0 Toulouse

 Though Marseille have won only one of their last four Ligue 1 home games, they have been presented with a favourable fixture to kick off their post-Christmas campaign and can take maximum points on Thursday. A lack of goals has seen Toulouse toil on the road, and they have already lost to several other top-flight heavyweights this term. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 54.31%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 23.41% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.68%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.26%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawToulouse
54.31% (-0.14 -0.14) 22.27% (0.09 0.09) 23.41% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Both teams to score 59.04% (-0.247 -0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.67% (-0.354 -0.35)40.33% (0.355 0.36)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.29% (-0.365 -0.37)62.71% (0.36499999999999 0.36)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.16% (-0.16799999999999 -0.17)14.83% (0.169 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.85% (-0.323 -0.32)43.14% (0.322 0.32)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.33% (-0.15100000000001 -0.15)30.67% (0.152 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.08% (-0.18 -0.18)66.92% (0.181 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 54.31%
    Toulouse 23.41%
    Draw 22.27%
MarseilleDrawToulouse
2-1 @ 9.79% (0.0019999999999989 0)
1-0 @ 8.68% (0.089 0.09)
2-0 @ 8.28% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.23% (-0.036 -0.04)
3-0 @ 5.27% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.68% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.97% (-0.035 -0.03)
4-0 @ 2.51% (-0.019 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.76% (-0.028 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.13% (-0.02 -0.02)
5-0 @ 0.96% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 54.31%
1-1 @ 10.26% (0.07 0.07)
2-2 @ 5.79% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.55% (0.074 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.45% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 22.27%
1-2 @ 6.06% (0.012 0.01)
0-1 @ 5.38% (0.065 0.06)
0-2 @ 3.18% (0.026 0.03)
1-3 @ 2.39% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.28% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.25% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 23.41%

How you voted: Marseille vs Toulouse

Marseille
89.3%
Draw
9.5%
Toulouse
1.2%
84
Head to Head
Feb 8, 2020 4.30pm
Marseille
1-0
Toulouse
Payet (51')
Gonzalez (15')

Makengo (61'), Sylla (71')
Nov 24, 2019 8pm
Toulouse
0-2
Marseille

Sangare (32'), Isimat-Mirin (63'), Amian (86')
Moreira (41')
Benedetto (76'), Radonjic (79')
Strootman (70'), Radonjic (80'), Kamara (82')
May 18, 2019 8pm
Toulouse
2-5
Marseille
Leya Iseka (26'), Gradel (61')
Jullien (22')
Sanson (29'), Sakai (50'), N'Jie (76'), Thauvin (90')
Amavi (39'), Rami (59')
Aug 10, 2018 7.45pm
Marseille
4-0
Toulouse
Payet (45' pen., 62'), Germain (89'), Thauvin (90')
Amavi (46')

Jullien (11'), Amian (44'), Sangare (55')
Mar 11, 2018 8pm
Toulouse
1-2
Marseille
Mubele (19')
Sylla (50'), Gradel (79'), Yago (86')
Ocampos (10'), Mitroglou (79')
Zambo Anguissa (43'), Amavi (63'), Payet (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG17134046153143
2Marseille17113339201936
3MonacoMonaco1794428181031
4Nice1786335231230
5Lille1778226161029
6Lyon178452922728
7Lens177642116527
8Toulouse177371919024
9StrasbourgStrasbourg176563029123
10Auxerre176472426-222
11Brest177192630-422
12Reims175572325-220
13Angers175481927-819
14Rennes1752102325-217
15NantesNantes173772027-716
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1751111637-2116
17Le HavreLe Havre1740131336-2312
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1723121642-269
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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