Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 59.11%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 19.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for a New York City FC win it was 1-2 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.