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Major League Soccer
Jul 4, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Citi Field
Montreal Impact

NY City
2 - 0
Montreal

Martinez (9', 56')
Sands (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Campbell (52')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and CF Montreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: NY City 4-2 Orlando City
Saturday, June 29 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Montreal 4-2 Philadelphia
Sunday, June 30 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: New York City FC 2-0 CF Montreal

The Boys in Blue have shown much more consistency and compactness defensively when compared to Montreal, which is why we project they will win another home contest in midweek. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 61.49%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 18.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 1-0 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 1-2 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for New York City FC in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for New York City FC.

Result
New York City FCDrawCF Montreal
61.49% (0.51 0.51) 20.11% (-0.227 -0.23) 18.4% (-0.285 -0.29)
Both teams to score 58.71% (0.26600000000001 0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.87% (0.598 0.6)37.12% (-0.599 -0.6)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.68% (0.641 0.64)59.32% (-0.642 -0.64)
New York City FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.34% (0.31999999999999 0.32)11.65% (-0.323 -0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.29% (0.683 0.68)36.71% (-0.686 -0.69)
CF Montreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.46% (0.057000000000002 0.06)33.54% (-0.059999999999995 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.82% (0.065999999999999 0.07)70.18% (-0.066999999999993 -0.07)
Score Analysis
    New York City FC 61.49%
    CF Montreal 18.4%
    Draw 20.11%
New York City FCDrawCF Montreal
2-1 @ 9.87% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02)
2-0 @ 9.03% (-0.032 -0.03)
1-0 @ 8.4% (-0.137 -0.14)
3-1 @ 7.07% (0.076 0.08)
3-0 @ 6.47% (0.06 0.06)
3-2 @ 3.86% (0.048 0.05)
4-1 @ 3.8% (0.088 0.09)
4-0 @ 3.48% (0.076 0.08)
4-2 @ 2.08% (0.052 0.05)
5-1 @ 1.63% (0.058 0.06)
5-0 @ 1.5% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 4.32%
Total : 61.49%
1-1 @ 9.18% (-0.135 -0.14)
2-2 @ 5.39% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 3.91% (-0.115 -0.12)
3-3 @ 1.41% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 20.11%
1-2 @ 5.01% (-0.065 -0.06)
0-1 @ 4.27% (-0.119 -0.12)
0-2 @ 2.33% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.96% (0.002 0)
1-3 @ 1.83% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 2.99%
Total : 18.4%

How you voted: NY City vs Montreal

New York City FC
88.9%
Draw
5.6%
CF Montreal
5.6%
36
Head to Head
Aug 31, 2023 12.30am
Jul 2, 2023 2.03am
Montreal
0-1
NY City

Lassiter (30')
Pellegrini (33')
Pellegrini (29'), Ilencic (64'), Rodriguez (85')
Oct 23, 2022 6pm
Conference Semi-Finals
Montreal
1-3
NY City
Moralez (6'), Heber (45+3'), Magno (61' pen.)
Jul 31, 2022 12.30am
Mar 12, 2022 6pm
Gameweek 3
NY City
4-1
Montreal
Callens (7'), Rodriguez (20'), Magno (64'), Andrade (83')
Morales (22')
rhs 2.0
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