Major League Soccer
Jun 18, 2023 at 1.30am UK
First Tennessee Park
We said: Nashville SC 2-0 St Louis City
Momentum is a funny thing, and when you have it, that can sometimes propel you to victory in matches where you do not deserve it.
The tight defensive set-up of Nashville and a lack of creativity from St Louis away from home have us leaning towards the home team to claim all three points this Saturday.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 68.37% . A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 13.09% .
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.37% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.73%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.77%) , while for a St Louis City win it was 0-1 (3.95%) . The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nashville SC would win this match.
Result Nashville SC Draw St Louis City 68.37% ( -0.31) 18.54% ( 0.07) 13.09% ( 0.25)
Both teams to score 51.26% ( 0.49)
59.35% ( 0.28) 40.65% ( -0.27)
36.96% ( 0.28) 63.03% ( -0.28)
89.13% ( -0) 10.87% ( 0)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 65.02% ( -0.01) 34.98% ( 0.01)
57.51% ( 0.55) 42.49% ( -0.55)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 21.14% ( 0.47) 78.86% ( -0.47)
Nashville SC 68.36%
St Louis City 13.09%
Draw 18.54%
Nashville SC Draw St Louis City 2-0 @ 11.37% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 8.41% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 7.2% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 4.67% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 4% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 2.07% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.77% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.03) Other @ 4.09% Total : 68.36% 1-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.62% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.99% Total : 18.54% 0-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.43% Total : 13.09%
How you voted: Nashville vs St Louis City
Nashville SC
Draw
St Louis City
15
rhs 2.0
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