Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 70.66%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 12.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 1-0 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (3.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Kansas City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sporting Kansas City.
Result | ||
Sporting Kansas City | Draw | St Louis City |
70.66% ( 0.99) | 17.16% ( -0.47) | 12.18% ( -0.51) |
Both teams to score 53.51% ( 0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.65% ( 0.93) | 36.35% ( -0.92) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.52% ( 1.01) | 58.48% ( -1) |
Sporting Kansas City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.85% ( 0.48) | 9.16% ( -0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.96% ( 1.12) | 31.04% ( -1.11) |
St Louis City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.9% ( -0.19) | 41.1% ( 0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.35% ( -0.17) | 77.65% ( 0.18) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Kansas City | Draw | St Louis City |
2-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.56% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 9% ( -0.22) 3-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 7.62% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 5.12% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 4.56% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.45% ( 0.14) 5-1 @ 2.18% ( 0.12) 4-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.06) 6-0 @ 0.98% ( 0.08) 5-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.49% Total : 70.65% | 1-1 @ 8% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.17) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 17.16% | 1-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.13) 0-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.48% Total : 12.18% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |