MX23RW : Tuesday, January 28 22:35:16| >> :60:1370:1370:
Benfica
Portuguese Super Cup | Final
Aug 9, 2023 at 8.45pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Aveiro
Porto

Benfica
2 - 0
Porto

di Maria (61'), Musa (68')
Ristic (15'), Mario (16'), Kokcu (27'), Bah (43'), Neves (49'), Chiquinho (84'), Vlachodimos (87')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Loader (29'), Pepe (33'), Pepe (45+1'), Eustaquio (51'), Sanusi (55')
Pepe (90'), Conceicao (90+8')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Portuguese Super Cup clash between Benfica and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions
Last Game: Feyenoord 2-1 Benfica
Sunday, July 30 at 3pm in Club Friendlies 1

Porto

All competitions
Last Game: Porto 0-1 Wolves
Tuesday, July 25 at 7pm in Club Friendlies 1

We said: Benfica 2-1 Porto

 While Porto have been the dominant side in this encounter over the years, Benfica have added a few world-class players to their ranks over the summer break, which could be a crucial factor this season and potentially in this match as well. With two attacking sides on display and with it still being early in the campaign, we expect lots of chances to be created in this match by both sides but fancy the league champions to edge it by the odd goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 51.8%. A win for Porto had a probability of 25.27% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
BenficaDrawPorto
51.8% (-3.19 -3.19) 22.92% (0.942 0.94) 25.27% (2.244 2.24)
Both teams to score 58.91% (-0.635 -0.63)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.52% (-2.039 -2.04)41.47% (2.036 2.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.13% (-2.095 -2.1)63.87% (2.092 2.09)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.9% (-1.788 -1.79)16.09% (1.785 1.79)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.51% (-3.366 -3.37)45.49% (3.363 3.36)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.21% (0.721 0.72)29.79% (-0.724 -0.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.14% (0.864 0.86)65.86% (-0.867 -0.87)
Score Analysis
    Benfica 51.8%
    Porto 25.27%
    Draw 22.92%
BenficaDrawPorto
2-1 @ 9.69% (-0.109 -0.11)
1-0 @ 8.76% (0.269 0.27)
2-0 @ 8% (-0.253 -0.25)
3-1 @ 5.9% (-0.45 -0.45)
3-0 @ 4.87% (-0.478 -0.48)
3-2 @ 3.57% (-0.197 -0.2)
4-1 @ 2.69% (-0.392 -0.39)
4-0 @ 2.22% (-0.376 -0.38)
4-2 @ 1.63% (-0.201 -0.2)
5-1 @ 0.98% (-0.216 -0.22)
Other @ 3.49%
Total : 51.8%
1-1 @ 10.6% (0.53 0.53)
2-2 @ 5.87% (0.050999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 4.79% (0.428 0.43)
3-3 @ 1.44% (-0.049 -0.05)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 22.92%
1-2 @ 6.42% (0.441 0.44)
0-1 @ 5.81% (0.623 0.62)
0-2 @ 3.52% (0.439 0.44)
1-3 @ 2.59% (0.226 0.23)
2-3 @ 2.37% (0.067 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.42% (0.202 0.2)
Other @ 3.15%
Total : 25.27%

How you voted: Benfica vs Porto

Benfica
70.8%
Draw
14.6%
Porto
14.6%
96
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