Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 56.06%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 20.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.